Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Propels Villa's Unlikely Championship Bid

Just two months prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager berated him over not reading a through-ball. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason of Villa's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

The Sideline Explosion of Joy

On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. When the in-form star drilled in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team continued to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six games, find themselves a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?

That’s a rather hard proposition to resolve. History, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.

Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team registered an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a side that have just won 10 in a row, Villa appear strangely fragile – but currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping Rogers to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more when facing the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

An Unstoppable Force

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the football into the net's top corner forever.

Potential for Growth

Could it be a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.

  • Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
  • The winger may rediscover the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
  • The defensive duo are due to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.

Savoring the Moment

Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.

This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.

Chad Green
Chad Green

Lena is een ervaren gids en schrijver die zich richt op de unieke cultuur en geschiedenis van Den Haag.